General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 83% Falkirk (2019), 17% Linlithgow and East Falkirk (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The SNP are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 40% | SNP 34% | None |
| Survation | Labour 41% | SNP 23% | None |
| Ipsos | SNP 37% | Labour 35% | None |
| Savanta | SNP 36% | Labour 35% | None |
| Focaldata | Labour 40% | SNP 28% | None |
| WeThink | SNP 36% | Labour 33% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | SNP 39% | Labour 30% | None |
| More in Common | Labour 37% | SNP 29% | None |
| JL Partners | Labour 39% | SNP 32% | None |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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