General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 2% Central Devon (2019), 84% East Devon (2019), 14% Exeter (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The strong performance of an independent candidate in one of the predecessors of this seat makes it difficult to call.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 30% | Labour 25% | Labour |
| Survation | Reform 30% | Tory 28% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 34% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| Savanta | Tory 30% | Labour 30% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 30% | Reform 28% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 32% | Tory 25% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 30% | Lib Dem 30% | Lib Dem |
| More in Common | Tory 32% | Labour 24% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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