tactical.vote

UK European elections 2019: Remain candidates
Recommended tactical vote

In Wales we recommend a tactical vote for Plaid Cymru

Why?

Plaid Cymru is most in danger of losing a seat here.

2019 candidates
Change UK1. Jon Owen Jones
Remain
2. June Davies
Remain
3. Matthew Paul
Remain
4. Sally Anne Stephenson
Remain
Conservative1. Dan Boucher
Leave
2. Craig Lawton
Leave
3. Fay Alicia Jones
Leave
4. Tomos Dafydd Davies
Leave
Green1. Anthony Slaughter
Remain
2. Ian Chandler
Remain
3. Ceri Davies
Remain
4. Duncan Rees
Remain
Labour1. Jackie Jones
Remain (evidence)
2. Matthew James Dorrance
Remain (evidence)
3. Mary Wimbury
Remain (evidence)
4. Mark Jeffrey Denley Whitcutt
Remain (evidence)
Lib Dem1. Sam Bennett
Remain
2. Donna Lalek
Remain
3. Alistair Cameron
Remain
4. Andrew Parkhurst
Remain
Plaid Cymru1. Jill Evans
Remain
2. Carmen Ria Smith
Remain
3. Patrick McGuinness
Remain
4. Ioan Bellin
Remain
Brexit Party1. Nathan Gill
Leave
2. James Freeman Wells
Leave
3. Gethin James
Leave
4. Julie Anne Price
Leave
UKIP1. Kris Hicks
Leave
2. Keith Edwards
Leave
3. Tom Harrison
Leave
4. Robert McNeil Wilson
Leave
Some small parties and low-placed list candidates have been omitted to save space.
2014 result (D'Hondt grid)
Party1st seat2nd seat3rd seat4th seat
Conservative127,74263,87142,58131,936
Labour206,332103,16668,77751,583
Lib Dem28,93014,4659,6437,233
UKIP201,983100,99267,32850,496
Green33,27516,63811,0928,319
Plaid Cymru111,86455,93237,28827,966

Read an explanation of this grid

Change in votes to gain/lose seats
PartyTo gain seatTo lose seat
Conservative+96,000-24,600
Labour+17,400-105,400
Lib Dem+83,000N/A
UKIP+21,800-98,900
Green+78,600N/A
Plaid Cymru+143,700-8,700
These figures are rounded.
Explanation

1. European elections in England, Scotland and Wales are counted using the D'Hondt method. Our aim is the most effective use of votes to maximise the number of Remain supporters elected in this somewhat complex system.

2. Based on the 2014 European election results, we have calculated how many votes each party needs to either gain or lose a seat.

3. We can then see whether tactical votes are most effectively used defensively or offensively, and which party is in danger of losing a seat or best placed to gain one.

4. In mixed parties such as Labour, we also consider whether the candidate in that list position is a known Remainer.

Q&A

Do you really need tactical voting in a proportional election?

The D'Hondt system is better than first-past-the-post, but quite flawed despite being theoretically more proportional. You are only able to express one preference, not rank candidates 1, 2, 3, etc as in other systems. The regional seat allocations also disadvantage smaller parties – true proportional representation is impossible when there are only 3 or 4 seats available, for example, and this in turn skews the national result. This means that you need to try to cast your single preference vote optimally.

What about TIG/Change UK?

As it is a new party, it did not take part in the 2014 European elections and so we have no hard evidence as to how it might perform. There are polls, but they fluctuate a lot. No doubt some Remainers will back Change UK, but their lack of electoral track record means that cannot be described as a 'tactical vote'. With the Remain vote split, it is possible that they will win very few or no seats, making votes for them 'wasted' in tactical terms.

What about the Brexit Party?

The Brexit Party is also a new party with no 2014 track record to refer to. It seems likely, however, that it will take most of UKIP's vote this time along a broadly similar geographical pattern. Where the calculation suggests seats being won from or lost to UKIP, in the final result it is likely that will mean the Brexit Party.

What about independents?

The party-list system means independents are very unlikely to be elected. No independent has ever won a UK seat, all the way back to the first European Parliamentary elections in 1979.

Why are you recommending a Labour vote in some areas?

Labour is an unusual case in that its party policy on Brexit is ambiguous. After taking feedback on this issue, we have taken the approach of looking at the positions of MEP candidates instead of parties as a whole, so we advocate a vote for Labour in cases where they are tactically best placed and the candidate who would win a seat is a known Remain supporter.

How can you say these are definitely the best tactical votes?

They are only best-effort recommendations, worked out using the formula explained on these pages, after considering the quirks of the D'Hondt system. There are other methods that could be used, for example a more defensive set of recommendations aimed at always protecting existing seats instead of winning new ones, but we have tried to take a balanced approach based on the maths. Please do send feedback to feedback@tactical.vote

Feedback

Think we’ve got it wrong? Want to suggest a better method? Email feedback@tactical.vote

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I live in Northern Ireland

We're not making recommendations for Northern Ireland because it has different parties and a different electoral system for these elections (using STV).