Ellesmere Port and Bromborough

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Justin Madders

Notional 2019 election result

Labour 52.6%

Tories 36%

Lib Dem 5.5%

Brexit Party 3.8%

Green 2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 66% Ellesmere Port and Neston (2019), 34% Wirral South (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 63%	Reform 15%	Labour
Survation	Labour 60%	Tory 15%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 66%	Tory 13%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 62%	Reform 14%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 61%	Reform 17%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 67%	Reform 12%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 57%	Reform 15%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 61%	Tory 13%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 56%	Reform 16%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.