General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 66% Ellesmere Port and Neston (2019), 34% Wirral South (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 63% | Reform 15% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 60% | Tory 18% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 66% | Tory 13% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 62% | Reform 14% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 63% | Reform 15% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 67% | Reform 12% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 58% | Tory 13% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 71% | Tory 11% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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