General election 2024


To vote tactically here, vote

Lib Dem

Liz Jarvis

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 53.7%

  Lib Dem 33.3%

  Labour 10.8%

  Green 1.9%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 70% Eastleigh (2019), 7% Romsey and Southampton North (2019), 23% Winchester (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Lib Dem 37% Tory 27% Lib Dem
Survation Lib Dem 32% Tory 29% Lib Dem
Ipsos Lib Dem 36% Tory 30% Lib Dem
Savanta Lib Dem 38% Tory 28% Lib Dem
Focaldata Lib Dem 34% Tory 29% Lib Dem
WeThink Lib Dem 33% Tory 29% Lib Dem
Electoral Calculus Lib Dem 54% Tory 19% Lib Dem
More in Common Lib Dem 41% Tory 26% Lib Dem
JL Partners Lib Dem 32% Tory 28% Lib Dem

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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