General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 89% East Surrey (2019), 11% Reigate (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 34% | Lib Dem 28% | Lib Dem |
| Survation | Tory 31% | Labour 27% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 38% | Labour 25% | Labour |
| Savanta | Tory 32% | Labour 30% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 35% | Labour 21% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 35% | Labour 25% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 32% | Labour 30% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 35% | Lib Dem 25% | Lib Dem |
| JL Partners | Tory 30% | Lib Dem 23% | Lib Dem |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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