General election 2024


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Grahame Morris

Notional 2019 election result

  Labour 44.3%

  Tories 29%

  Brexit Party 18%

  Lib Dem 4.6%

  The North East Party 3.6%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 1% City of Durham (2019), 87% Easington (2019), 12% Sedgefield (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 51% Reform 28% Labour
Survation Labour 56% Reform 23% Labour
Ipsos Labour 57% Reform 20% Labour
Savanta Labour 54% Reform 24% Labour
Focaldata Labour 53% Reform 31% Labour
WeThink Labour 46% Reform 23% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 47% Reform 30% Labour
More in Common Labour 46% Reform 28% Labour
JL Partners Labour 51% Reform 24% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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