General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 2% Dumfries and Galloway (2019), 93% Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (2019), 5% Lanark and Hamilton East (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 33% | SNP 28% | SNP |
| Survation | Tory 32% | Labour 32% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 32% | SNP 31% | SNP |
| Savanta | Tory 32% | Labour 32% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 28% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 35% | Tory 26% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 30% | Labour 30% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 35% | SNP 29% | SNP |
| JL Partners | Tory 31% | SNP 25% | SNP |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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