General election 2024

Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme

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Labour

Lee Pitcher

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 49.6%

  Labour 31.8%

  Brexit Party 10.7%

  Lib Dem 4.4%

  Green 2.1%

  The Yorkshire Party 1.4%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 25% Brigg and Goole (2019), 69% Don Valley (2019), 6% Doncaster North (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 43% Tory 26% Labour
Survation Labour 50% Tory 22% Labour
Ipsos Labour 33% Reform 28% Labour
Savanta Labour 45% Reform 24% Labour
Focaldata Labour 40% Reform 28% Labour
WeThink Labour 32% Reform 31% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 45% Reform 25% Labour
More in Common Labour 41% Tory 28% Labour
JL Partners Labour 37% Reform 26% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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