General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 25% Brigg and Goole (2019), 69% Don Valley (2019), 6% Doncaster North (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 42% | Reform 26% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 50% | Tory 26% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 33% | Reform 28% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 45% | Reform 24% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 40% | Reform 25% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 32% | Reform 31% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 46% | Reform 23% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 43% | Tory 32% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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