General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 3% Henley (2019), 97% Wantage (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Lib Dem 43% | Tory 23% | Lib Dem |
| Survation | Lib Dem 36% | Labour 28% | None |
| Ipsos | Tory 29% | Labour 29% | Labour |
| Savanta | Lib Dem 32% | Tory 27% | Lib Dem |
| Focaldata | Lib Dem 35% | Tory 28% | Lib Dem |
| WeThink | Tory 30% | Labour 28% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Lib Dem 45% | Tory 25% | Lib Dem |
| More in Common | Lib Dem 48% | Tory 29% | Lib Dem |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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