General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 98% Christchurch (2019), 2% North Dorset (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 36% | Reform 25% | Lib Dem |
| Survation | Tory 28% | Labour 26% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 39% | Labour 27% | Labour |
| Savanta | Tory 30% | Labour 29% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 36% | Reform 23% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 36% | Labour 21% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 34% | Labour 22% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 36% | Labour 22% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Tory 29% | Lib Dem 25% | Lib Dem |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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