General election 2024

Ceredigion Preseli

Tactical voting recommendation

Withdrawn

Notional 2019 election result

  Plaid 30.4%

  Tories 28.9%

  Labour 21.2%

  Lib Dem 14.3%

  Brexit Party 3.9%

  Green 1.3%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 76% Ceredigion (2019), 24% Preseli Pembrokeshire (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

We have withdrawn this recommendation as polling shows that this is now most likely a contest between two progressive parties. We encourage you to vote for your preferred party.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Plaid 46% Tory 12% Plaid
Survation Plaid 42% Labour 20% None
Ipsos Plaid 39% Labour 22% None
Savanta Plaid 42% Labour 21% None
Focaldata Plaid 35% Labour 22% None
WeThink Plaid 37% Labour 28% None
Electoral Calculus Plaid 47% Reform 17% Plaid
More in Common Plaid 46% Labour 16% None
JL Partners Plaid 37% Labour 24% None

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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