General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 76% Ceredigion (2019), 24% Preseli Pembrokeshire (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have withdrawn this recommendation as polling shows that this is now most likely a contest between two progressive parties. We encourage you to vote for your preferred party.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Plaid 36% | Tory 14% | Plaid |
| Survation | Plaid 34% | Labour 24% | None |
| Ipsos | Plaid 39% | Labour 22% | None |
| Savanta | Plaid 42% | Labour 21% | None |
| Focaldata | Plaid 33% | Labour 24% | None |
| WeThink | Plaid 37% | Labour 28% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | Plaid 47% | Labour 16% | None |
| More in Common | Plaid 27% | Labour 27% | None |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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