Castle Point

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Mark Jonathan Maguire

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 76.5%

Labour 16.7%

Lib Dem 6.7%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 98% Castle Point (2019), 2% South Basildon and East Thurrock (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Tory 41%	Reform 28%	Labour
Survation	Labour 40%	Tory 34%	Labour
Ipsos	Tory 39%	Labour 30%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 34%	Tory 33%	Labour
Focaldata	Tory 40%	Reform 26%	Labour
WeThink	Tory 41%	Labour 28%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Tory 33%	Labour 30%	Labour
More in Common	Tory 41%	Labour 29%	Labour
JL Partners	Tory 37%	Labour 28%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.