Carlisle

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Julie Minns

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 56.3%

Labour 32.7%

Lib Dem 7.6%

UK Independence Party 1.9%

Green 1%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 78% Carlisle (2019), 22% Penrith and The Border (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 37%	Tory 28%	Labour
Survation	Labour 44%	Tory 26%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 49%	Tory 29%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 49%	Tory 23%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 47%	Tory 27%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 47%	Tory 28%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 51%	Tory 22%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 48%	Tory 27%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 40%	Tory 28%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.