General election 2024

Cardiff North

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Anna McMorrin

Notional 2019 election result

  Labour 49.3%

  Tories 36%

  Lib Dem 6.5%

  Plaid 3.4%

  Brexit Party 2.7%

  Green 1.5%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 96% Cardiff North (2019), 4% Pontypridd (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 53% Tory 16% Labour
Survation Labour 48% Tory 23% Labour
Ipsos Labour 58% Tory 20% Labour
Savanta Labour 55% Tory 20% Labour
Focaldata Labour 49% Tory 21% Labour
WeThink Labour 51% Tory 19% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 56% Tory 18% Labour
More in Common Labour 37% Tory 22% Labour
JL Partners Labour 49% Tory 20% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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