General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 66% Cardiff Central (2019), 34% Cardiff South and Penarth (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
This is a 'safe' seat for a progressive party. We believe tactical voting is not needed this time. We encourage you to vote for your preferred party.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 51% | Reform 14% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 48% | Lib Dem 13% | None |
| Ipsos | Labour 58% | Tory 14% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 55% | Tory 16% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 57% | Reform 12% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 57% | Tory 12% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 56% | Tory 13% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 49% | Tory 16% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Labour 52% | Tory 15% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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