Caerphilly

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Chris Evans

Notional 2019 election result

Labour 44.9%

Tories 28.1%

Plaid 14.2%

Brexit Party 11.7%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 81% Caerphilly (2019), 19% Islwyn (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 44%	Reform 20%	Labour
Survation	Labour 41%	Reform 27%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 50%	Reform 15%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 47%	Reform 16%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 47%	Reform 22%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 53%	Plaid 17%	None
Electoral Calculus	Labour 39%	Reform 22%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 55%	Tory 15%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 48%	Reform 19%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.