General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 34% Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (2019), 66% Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Plaid Cymru would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Plaid 32% | Labour 26% | None |
| Survation | Labour 28% | Tory 24% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Plaid 35% | Labour 25% | None |
| Savanta | Plaid 39% | Labour 27% | None |
| Focaldata | Labour 32% | Plaid 25% | None |
| WeThink | Plaid 37% | Labour 26% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | Plaid 36% | Reform 23% | Plaid |
| More in Common | Labour 35% | Plaid 29% | None |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
Promoted by the Tactical Voting Coalition, 483 Green Lanes, London N13 4BS