Caerfyrddin

To vote tactically here, vote

Plaid

Ann Davies

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 40.7%

Plaid 28.6%

Labour 25.5%

Brexit Party 3.7%

Lib Dem 1.5%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 34% Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (2019), 66% Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Plaid Cymru would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Plaid 33%	Tory 24%	Plaid
Survation	Labour 31%	Tory 26%	Labour
Ipsos	Plaid 35%	Labour 25%	None
Savanta	Plaid 39%	Labour 27%	None
Focaldata	Labour 30%	Plaid 27%	None
WeThink	Plaid 37%	Labour 26%	None
Electoral Calculus	Plaid 36%	Reform 25%	Plaid
More in Common	Labour 40%	Reform 22%	Labour
JL Partners	Plaid 36%	Labour 29%	None

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.