General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 43% Buckingham (2019), 57% Milton Keynes South (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 36% | Tory 27% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 40% | Tory 31% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 42% | Tory 31% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 45% | Tory 29% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 36% | Tory 30% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 35% | Tory 30% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 46% | Tory 23% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 39% | Tory 34% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
Promoted by the Tactical Voting Coalition, 483 Green Lanes, London N13 4BS