General election 2024

Bristol North West

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Darren Jones

Notional 2019 election result

  Labour 50.4%

  Tories 35.7%

  Lib Dem 7.9%

  Green 5.9%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 89% Bristol North West (2019), 11% Bristol West (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 51% Tory 16% Labour
Survation Labour 54% Tory 19% Labour
Ipsos Labour 57% Tory 17% Labour
Savanta Labour 55% Tory 20% Labour
Focaldata Labour 51% Tory 18% Labour
WeThink Labour 49% Green 21% None
Electoral Calculus Labour 55% Tory 14% Labour
More in Common Labour 46% Tory 17% Labour
JL Partners Labour 47% Tory 21% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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