General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 11% Beverley and Holderness (2019), 89% East Yorkshire (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 37% | Labour 29% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 35% | Tory 35% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 36% | Labour 33% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 36% | Tory 27% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 36% | Labour 27% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 33% | Labour 24% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 30% | Tory 28% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 44% | Labour 35% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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