Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

To vote tactically here, vote

Lib Dem

David Chadwick

Notional 2019 election result

Tories 46.9%

Lib Dem 27.9%

Labour 18%

Plaid 3.1%

Brexit Party 2.2%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 75% Brecon and Radnorshire (2019), 25% Neath (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The Lib Dems would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Lib Dem 37%	Tory 26%	Lib Dem
Survation	Lib Dem 31%	Labour 25%	None
Ipsos	Tory 27%	Labour 24%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 29%	Tory 27%	Labour
Focaldata	Lib Dem 26%	Tory 26%	Lib Dem
WeThink	Tory 27%	Labour 27%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Lib Dem 30%	Tory 28%	Lib Dem
More in Common	Lib Dem 32%	Tory 25%	Lib Dem
JL Partners	Lib Dem 26%	Labour 26%	None

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.