General election 2024


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Matthew Wright

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 67.9%

  Labour 18.5%

  Lib Dem 10.2%

  Independent 3.9%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 91% Braintree (2019), 7% Saffron Walden (2019), 3% Witham (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Tory 36% Labour 31% Labour
Survation Tory 37% Labour 34% Labour
Ipsos Tory 36% Labour 30% Labour
Savanta Labour 34% Tory 31% Labour
Focaldata Tory 34% Labour 34% Labour
WeThink Labour 30% Tory 30% Labour
Electoral Calculus Tory 35% Labour 30% Labour
More in Common Tory 35% Labour 31% Labour
JL Partners Tory 33% Labour 28% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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