General election 2024

Blyth and Ashington

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Ian Lavery

Notional 2019 election result

  Labour 41.8%

  Tories 41.2%

  Brexit Party 8%

  Lib Dem 5.9%

  Green 2.9%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 39% Blyth Valley (2019), 61% Wansbeck (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 59% Reform 22% Labour
Survation Labour 54% Reform 21% Labour
Ipsos Labour 58% Reform 19% Labour
Savanta Labour 54% Reform 21% Labour
Focaldata Labour 56% Reform 21% Labour
WeThink Labour 62% Reform 15% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 53% Reform 28% Labour
More in Common Labour 49% Reform 27% Labour
JL Partners Labour 49% Reform 19% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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