General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 16% Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (2019), 71% Blaenau Gwent (2019), 8% Caerphilly (2019), 4% Islwyn (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 51% | Other 19% | None |
| Survation | Labour 61% | Plaid 18% | None |
| Ipsos | Labour 61% | Tory 16% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 55% | Tory 23% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 77% | Tory 10% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 60% | Tory 17% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 55% | Tory 28% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 62% | Tory 25% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
Promoted by the Tactical Voting Coalition, 483 Green Lanes, London N13 4BS