General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 67% Blackley and Broughton (2019), 19% Heywood and Middleton (2019), 14% Manchester Central (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
This is a 'safe' seat for a progressive party. We believe tactical voting is not needed this time. We encourage you to vote for your preferred party.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 61% | Reform 17% | Labour |
| Survation | Labour 63% | Tory 14% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Labour 63% | Tory 16% | Labour |
| Savanta | Labour 64% | Tory 16% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Labour 61% | Reform 17% | Labour |
| WeThink | Labour 70% | Tory 13% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Labour 58% | Reform 22% | Labour |
| More in Common | Labour 58% | Reform 19% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Labour 56% | Tory 18% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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