General election 2024

Bathgate and Linlithgow

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SNP

Martyn Day

Notional 2019 election result

  SNP 44.5%

  Tories 24.4%

  Labour 18.6%

  Lib Dem 7.5%

  Green 2.1%

  Brexit Party 1.9%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 88% Linlithgow and East Falkirk (2019), 12% Livingston (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The SNP are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 38% SNP 29% None
Survation Labour 50% SNP 21% None
Ipsos Labour 40% SNP 29% None
Savanta Labour 41% SNP 30% None
Focaldata Labour 37% SNP 29% None
WeThink SNP 32% Labour 32% None
Electoral Calculus Labour 42% SNP 30% None
More in Common Labour 39% SNP 27% None
JL Partners Labour 37% SNP 33% None

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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