Barnsley North

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Labour

Dan Jarvis

Notional 2019 election result

Labour 39.5%

Brexit Party 30.1%

Tories 22.8%

Lib Dem 3.3%

Green 2.4%

The Yorkshire Party 1.5%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 76% Barnsley Central (2019), 24% Barnsley East (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Reform party (formerly Brexit Party) again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster	Winner	Runner-up	Implied tactical
YouGov	Labour 42%	Reform 36%	Labour
Survation	Labour 53%	Reform 20%	Labour
Ipsos	Labour 55%	Reform 23%	Labour
Savanta	Labour 50%	Reform 30%	Labour
Focaldata	Labour 48%	Reform 34%	Labour
WeThink	Labour 44%	Reform 32%	Labour
Electoral Calculus	Labour 46%	Reform 33%	Labour
More in Common	Labour 44%	Reform 26%	Labour
JL Partners	Labour 43%	Reform 30%	Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.