General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 76% Barnsley Central (2019), 24% Barnsley East (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Reform party (formerly Brexit Party) again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
---|---|---|---|
YouGov | Labour 37% | Reform 34% | Labour |
Survation | Labour 52% | Reform 16% | Labour |
Ipsos | Labour 55% | Reform 23% | Labour |
Savanta | Labour 50% | Reform 30% | Labour |
Focaldata | Labour 47% | Reform 35% | Labour |
WeThink | Labour 44% | Reform 32% | Labour |
Electoral Calculus | Labour 46% | Reform 31% | Labour |
More in Common | Labour 47% | Reform 26% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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