General election 2024

Barnsley North

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Labour

Dan Jarvis

Notional 2019 election result

  Labour 39.5%

  Brexit Party 30.1%

  Tories 22.8%

  Lib Dem 3.3%

  Green 2.4%

  The Yorkshire Party 1.5%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 76% Barnsley Central (2019), 24% Barnsley East (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Reform party (formerly Brexit Party) again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 37% Reform 34% Labour
Survation Labour 52% Reform 16% Labour
Ipsos Labour 55% Reform 23% Labour
Savanta Labour 50% Reform 30% Labour
Focaldata Labour 47% Reform 35% Labour
WeThink Labour 44% Reform 32% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 46% Reform 31% Labour
More in Common Labour 47% Reform 26% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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