General election 2024


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Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 55%

  Labour 22.4%

  Lib Dem 18.7%

  Green 3.1%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 78% Aylesbury (2019), 22% Buckingham (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 34% Tory 30% Labour
Survation Labour 29% Tory 27% Labour
Ipsos Labour 34% Tory 30% Labour
Savanta Labour 36% Tory 29% Labour
Focaldata Labour 33% Tory 30% Labour
WeThink Lib Dem 29% Labour 26% None
Electoral Calculus Labour 38% Tory 28% Labour
More in Common Tory 30% Labour 30% Labour
JL Partners Tory 30% Labour 24% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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