General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 72% Arundel and South Downs (2019), 28% Chichester (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
We have removed this tactical voting recommendation because it was contradicted by multiple independent polls.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 41% | Labour 21% | Labour |
| Survation | Tory 31% | Labour 29% | Labour |
| Ipsos | Tory 37% | Labour 24% | Labour |
| Savanta | Tory 31% | Labour 30% | Labour |
| Focaldata | Tory 36% | Labour 27% | Labour |
| WeThink | Tory 34% | Labour 22% | Labour |
| Electoral Calculus | Tory 31% | Labour 25% | Labour |
| More in Common | Tory 34% | Labour 21% | Labour |
| JL Partners | Tory 29% | Labour 24% | Labour |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
Promoted by the Tactical Voting Coalition, 483 Green Lanes, London N13 4BS