General election 2024

Alloa and Grangemouth

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SNP

John Nicolson

Notional 2019 election result

  SNP 47.6%

  Tories 31.8%

  Labour 11%

  Lib Dem 6.3%

  Green 1.4%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 32% Falkirk (2019), 17% Linlithgow and East Falkirk (2019), 50% Ochil and South Perthshire (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The SNP are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 40% SNP 32% None
Survation Labour 43% SNP 23% None
Ipsos Labour 40% SNP 39% None
Savanta Labour 37% SNP 36% None
Focaldata Labour 38% SNP 30% None
WeThink SNP 36% Labour 34% None
Electoral Calculus SNP 39% Labour 32% None
More in Common Labour 36% SNP 32% None
JL Partners Labour 33% SNP 31% None

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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