General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 32% Falkirk (2019), 17% Linlithgow and East Falkirk (2019), 50% Ochil and South Perthshire (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The SNP are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Labour 40% | SNP 32% | None |
| Survation | Labour 43% | SNP 23% | None |
| Ipsos | Labour 40% | SNP 39% | None |
| Savanta | Labour 37% | SNP 36% | None |
| Focaldata | Labour 38% | SNP 30% | None |
| WeThink | SNP 36% | Labour 34% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | SNP 39% | Labour 32% | None |
| More in Common | Labour 36% | SNP 32% | None |
| JL Partners | Labour 33% | SNP 31% | None |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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