General election 2024

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

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SNP

Seamus Logan

Notional 2019 election result

  Tories 48.9%

  SNP 41.3%

  Lib Dem 5.2%

  Labour 4.3%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 75% Banff and Buchan (2019), 25% Moray (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The SNP would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov SNP 38% Tory 30% SNP
Survation Tory 37% SNP 29% SNP
Ipsos SNP 41% Tory 26% SNP
Savanta Tory 33% SNP 30% SNP
Focaldata SNP 31% Tory 27% SNP
WeThink SNP 36% Labour 26% None
Electoral Calculus SNP 35% Labour 27% None
More in Common SNP 37% Tory 27% SNP
JL Partners SNP 32% Tory 28% SNP

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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