General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 75% Banff and Buchan (2019), 25% Moray (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The SNP would have been the most likely second place in 2019 under these new boundaries, so should be best placed to challenge the Tories this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Tory 39% | SNP 36% | SNP |
| Survation | Tory 38% | SNP 29% | SNP |
| Ipsos | SNP 41% | Tory 26% | SNP |
| Savanta | Tory 33% | SNP 30% | SNP |
| Focaldata | Tory 27% | SNP 27% | SNP |
| WeThink | SNP 36% | Labour 26% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | SNP 37% | Labour 26% | None |
| More in Common | SNP 38% | Tory 37% | SNP |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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