General election 2024

Aberdeen South

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Stephen Flynn

Notional 2019 election result

  SNP 46.5%

  Tories 32.8%

  Lib Dem 10.3%

  Labour 9.4%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 20% Aberdeen North (2019), 80% Aberdeen South (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

The SNP are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov SNP 36% Labour 23% None
Survation Labour 30% SNP 28% None
Ipsos SNP 34% Labour 27% None
Savanta Labour 33% SNP 32% None
Focaldata SNP 35% Labour 26% None
WeThink Labour 37% SNP 29% None
Electoral Calculus SNP 35% Labour 29% None
More in Common Labour 31% SNP 31% None
JL Partners SNP 39% Labour 24% None

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

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