General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 20% Aberdeen North (2019), 80% Aberdeen South (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The SNP are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | SNP 36% | Labour 23% | None |
| Survation | Labour 30% | SNP 28% | None |
| Ipsos | SNP 34% | Labour 27% | None |
| Savanta | Labour 33% | SNP 32% | None |
| Focaldata | SNP 35% | Labour 26% | None |
| WeThink | Labour 37% | SNP 29% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | SNP 35% | Labour 29% | None |
| More in Common | Labour 31% | SNP 31% | None |
| JL Partners | SNP 39% | Labour 24% | None |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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