General election 2024
The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.
This constituency is made up of 69% Aberdeen North (2019), 29% Gordon (2019).
For more details on the calculation see the method page.
The SNP are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.
This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:
| Pollster | Winner | Runner-up | Implied tactical |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | SNP 38% | Labour 33% | None |
| Survation | SNP 33% | Labour 32% | None |
| Ipsos | SNP 40% | Labour 30% | None |
| Savanta | SNP 36% | Labour 35% | None |
| Focaldata | SNP 36% | Labour 30% | None |
| WeThink | SNP 44% | Labour 26% | None |
| Electoral Calculus | SNP 38% | Labour 31% | None |
| More in Common | SNP 33% | Labour 29% | None |
| JL Partners | SNP 36% | Labour 32% | None |
Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.
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