General election 2024

Aberafan Maesteg

To vote tactically here, vote

Labour

Stephen Kinnock

Notional 2019 election result

  Labour 50.7%

  Tories 25.8%

  Brexit Party 8.6%

  Plaid 7.9%

  Lib Dem 3.9%

  Green 1.6%

  Independent 1.4%

About notional results

The boundaries of this constituency have changed. This 'notional' result aims to calculate what the result in the 2019 general election would have been if this constituency had existed at the time.

This constituency is made up of 61% Aberavon (2019), 1% Neath (2019), 16% Bridgend (2019), 22% Ogmore (2019).

For more details on the calculation see the method page.

Labour are most likely to have won this seat if these were the boundaries in 2019, so should be best placed to defeat the Tories again this time.

Poll check

This election has seen a large amount of polling. Our recommendations are not based on polling, but we do check to spot possible errors. This is what the pollsters say here:

Pollster Winner Runner-up Implied tactical
YouGov Labour 45% Reform 19% Labour
Survation Labour 51% Reform 16% Labour
Ipsos Labour 50% Tory 13% Labour
Savanta Labour 53% Reform 15% Labour
Focaldata Labour 53% Reform 20% Labour
WeThink Labour 58% Reform 13% Labour
Electoral Calculus Labour 55% Reform 20% Labour
More in Common Labour 51% Reform 20% Labour
JL Partners Labour 55% Reform 14% Labour

Thank you to Apogee for collating the polls.

Get updates on tactical voting

This will subscribe you to updates from tactical.vote. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy policy

Promoted by the Tactical Voting Coalition, 483 Green Lanes, London N13 4BS